AGP Executive Report

US-Iran War Diplomacy: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says the Iran-US peace MoU is in Tehran’s interests and urges Trump to avoid “turmoil,” insisting disputes can be resolved through dialogue and implementation. Hormuz Standoff: Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejects US claims that the Strait of Hormuz is open, saying any ship must pass only with Iran’s coordination and that the strait stays closed until Washington fulfills its commitments. Regional Mediation: Egypt and Kuwait call for de-escalation and a return to US-Iran negotiations, while Pakistan says the talks window is “not closed” despite the Islamabad MoU expiring. Sanctions & Economy: Tehran acknowledges war’s economic toll—trade down sharply and inflation up—while vowing to resist US sanctions through diplomacy and defense. US Pressure Tactics: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocks US Treasury claims about oil flows and war costs, escalating the information fight alongside new sanctions. Security Narrative: Iran reports a “decisive” blow against a US-Israel-linked militant team in Sistan and Baluchestan, killing one and arresting six.

US-Iran Economic Pressure: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted sanctions are hurting the economy and said Tehran may raise gasoline prices, as Washington pushes “Operation Economic Outcast” and warns countries against enabling Iran. Banking Sanctions Hit Region: The US Treasury moved to cut Banque Misr’s UAE branch off from dollar correspondent banking over Iran-linked activity; the bank says it is reviewing the notice. Hormuz and Maritime Standoff: Iran’s parliament speaker warned the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions and vowed “all or none” oil exports, while Iran’s navy claims decisive control and Iran links any reopening to US commitments. Diplomacy vs Pressure: Pezeshkian urged Trump to avoid turmoil and resolve disputes via the June memorandum, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi accused US and Israel-aligned actors of manipulating energy markets for profit. Security Posture: Iran’s acting defense leadership vowed to keep boosting military capabilities, and the IRGC said it dismantled a group it claimed was linked to the US and Israel in Sistan and Baluchestan. Cyber Warning: A former US cyber chief warned Britain should expect more Iranian cyber attacks on critical infrastructure.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei says Iran and Oman agreed on a temporary central corridor for ships, but full reopening hinges on Washington meeting Tehran’s conditions—especially ending the regional wars in Lebanon and Gaza. Sanctions Push: The US expands “Operation Economic Outcast,” with new secondary sanctions targeting banks and shadow-finance links, while Iran calls the campaign “state terrorism” and warns it could threaten social cohesion. Economic Strain: Reuters reports Iran’s leaders openly acknowledge the toll: the supreme leader urges relief for hardship as President Pezeshkian says foreign trade has shrunk 35% under sanctions and blockade. Diplomacy Pressure: UN chief Antonio Guterres urges the US and Iran to resume meaningful negotiations, warning of humanitarian and economic fallout. Regional Fallout: Pakistan and Kuwait sign a new defence cooperation protocol, reflecting Gulf security recalibration amid the US-Iran standoff. Human Rights & Security: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi says it will not forgive or forget the Minab school massacre, while Iran denies reports of a plot against Trump’s son.

Iran War at 6 Months: The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict hit its six-month mark with no breakthrough in sight as Washington pivots from battlefield action to economic pressure and Tehran insists diplomacy is possible only if sanctions end. Operation Economic Outcast: The Treasury moved to revoke Banque Misr UAE’s access to U.S. correspondent banking, citing about $1.8B tied to alleged Iranian shadow networks, while Iran calls the campaign “state terrorism” and urges countries not to enforce U.S. sanctions. Hormuz Update & Conditions: CENTCOM said Iranian mines have been cleared from Strait of Hormuz lanes, but Iran’s security officials say reopening depends on U.S. meeting Tehran’s demands, including an end to wars in Gaza and Lebanon; Qatar and Oman keep pushing de-escalation talks. Diplomacy vs Pressure: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi told Qatar-mediated discussions that “pressure doesn’t work,” while China backs dialogue as the “only viable way out.” Domestic Fallout: Reports also highlight petrol queues in Tehran amid war-linked supply disruptions. Cyber/Info Ops: Meta removed an Iran-linked AI-driven influence network targeting U.S. politicians and journalists.

Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM and foreign minister met Iran’s President Pezeshkian and top officials in Tehran, pushing de-escalation and a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including a temporary shipping corridor and mine-clearing “joint project,” as Washington says it is not negotiating with Tehran. Economic Pressure & Politics: Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf mocked the U.S. “economic encirclement” plan and U.S. spending on Israel and bases, while the Central Bank said it has enough foreign currency to stabilize markets. Security Warnings: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Rezaei warned the U.S. of consequences for any new hostile act and rejected a reported plot targeting Barron Trump, blaming Netanyahu for misinformation. Strait of Hormuz Flashpoints: CENTCOM said it cleared Iranian mines from international shipping lanes, while Trump claimed the strait is open under U.S. control and reiterated the blockade continues. UN Concern: UN chief Guterres’ office warned of potential escalation and urged dialogue, citing disruptions to energy and food flows.

Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar and Iran held talks in Tehran on a temporary joint navigational corridor and mine-clearing plans for the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping risks rise and de-escalation efforts try to create conditions for dialogue. US-Iran Standoff: The White House says no US-Iran negotiations are happening now, while Washington pushes “Operation Economic Outcast” to intensify economic pressure; Iran’s oil minister also insists crude sales and deliveries continue despite US blockades. Regional Mediation: Pakistan reiterated that Army chief Asim Munir’s Iran visit focused on de-escalation and exploring a negotiated settlement, rejecting claims he went as a US envoy. Hardline Signals: Iran’s armed forces warned Persian-language outlets abroad could be treated as military targets, escalating the information-war tone. Domestic Pressure: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf framed the situation as an all-out economic war, urging unity and focus on livelihoods as sanctions tighten. Human Rights: A rights group says Iran has executed over 500 people in 2026, including people detained during January protests.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM and FM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is set to visit Tehran on Thursday to push de-escalation and revive dialogue, with talks expected to focus on freedom of navigation and restoring Hormuz to pre-Feb. 28 conditions. Hormuz Shipping Terms: Iran’s deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi says Tehran will not allow military vessels to transit under a potential Oman-linked arrangement, while commercial routes may use mixed Iranian-Omani paths temporarily, with a permanent plan due within 30–60 days. Nuclear Oversight Clash: AEOI chief Mohammad Eslami says IAEA inspections of bomb-damaged sites will wait until new procedures are set under Iran’s legal framework. Economic Pressure vs. Response: Iran’s Foreign Ministry calls the US “economic exclusion” drive “pure parody,” while President Masoud Pezeshkian rejects the idea sanctions will work. UN Accountability: Abbas Araghchi tells the UN the US must be held responsible for “economic terrorism” and provide full compensation for damages. Media Crackdown: Iran’s armed forces warn Persian-language outlets abroad (BBC Persian, Iran International, Radio Farda) as “military targets.” US Messaging: Trump says he’s “not in a hurry” for talks, claims Hormuz is operational and says he believes Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but “seriously wounded.”

Economic Pressure & Public Mood: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says the US “will achieve nothing” with new sanctions, as Iranians report worsening daily costs and fuel/queue pressures amid the war’s sixth month. Hormuz Negotiations & Leverage: Iran and Oman are still working out a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, with Tehran insisting the strait won’t normalize unless US blockade and sanctions are lifted—while Iran’s IRGC warns the US remains the main obstacle. Shipping Blacklists Hit Markets: Iran’s blacklist of 45 tankers is already reshaping commercial routing, with some oil companies and Indian refiners reportedly avoiding blacklisted vessels and ship-to-ship transfers. US Strategy Shift: US officials and media report Washington is leaning more on sanctions and naval pressure than fresh strikes “for the time being,” even as Trump claims Hormuz mines are cleared and the strait is “functioning.” Leadership Speculation: Trump again fueled rumors about Iran’s supreme leadership, saying he believes Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but “very seriously wounded.” Security & Media Threats: Iran’s armed forces warn Persian-language broadcasters abroad could be treated as military targets, escalating rhetoric as cyber threats linked to Iranian actors expand in Europe. Domestic Justice: Iran executed two men convicted of hundreds of armed robberies, underscoring the regime’s hardline internal crackdown.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held calls with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir and Qatar’s FM Al Thani as Tehran pushes de-escalation talks tied to a temporary Hormuz corridor with Oman, including mine-clearing; Hormuz Messaging: Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi rejected Trump’s “mines cleared” claims and stressed the corridor is not an immediate reopening, with Iran insisting the strait remains under its control and that any transit terms depend on US commitments; US “Economic Outcast” Sanctions: Washington expanded secondary sanctions under “Operation Economic Outcast,” targeting four India-based firms and three Indian nationals over Iran oil/petrochemical trade, while markets largely shrugged off the latest pressure; China Pushback: Beijing warned it will defend its economic interests and oppose unilateral sanctions, signaling it could be the key variable in whether the US squeeze bites; Regional Mediation: Pakistan says Munir’s Tehran visit delivered “significant progress” toward reviving the Islamabad MoU and ending the US-Iran conflict, with reports of a possible ceasefire package that includes Hormuz navigation; Domestic Pressure Signals: Tehran residents reported long petrol queues as sanctions deepen economic strain, while Iranian officials and parliament speaker Ghalibaf vowed the US will fail in its economic war.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman outlined a phased framework in Tehran for restoring safe navigation, starting with a temporary joint maritime corridor plus mine-clearance work, while technical talks continue on a permanent corridor and traffic/security services. US “Economic D-Day” Pressure: Washington’s new “Operation Economic Outcast” escalates secondary sanctions threats on countries and firms trading with Iran, with Tehran and partners warning of economic fallout and retaliation; China vowed to defend its interests against “illegal unilateral sanctions.” Hormuz Mine Claims: Trump again asserted all mines are cleared in international waters and warned any new mine-laying vessels would be “immediately and systematically destroyed,” as shipping risk remains a live concern. Iran’s Defiance at Home: President Pezeshkian rejected “surrender,” saying the US economic war aims to sow discord and that Iran will annul it through unity. Regional Mediation via Pakistan: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir reported “significant progress” in Tehran talks aimed at easing the US-Iran stalemate, while Iran told Munir US “coercion and bullying” complicates diplomacy. Human Rights/Legal Uncertainty: Four Kurdish political prisoners from Bukan remain in legal limbo more than 40 months after arrests, despite Supreme Court actions. Security & Cyber Escalation: The US Secret Service confirmed it is investigating an Iranian state-media video that appears to threaten Barron Trump, as officials warn cyberattacks on critical infrastructure may intensify.

Operation Economic Outcast: The Trump administration launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding secondary sanctions to cut Iran off from global financial and trade lifelines, targeting more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, while warning countries to end ties or face exclusion from the dollar system. Sanctions vs. diplomacy: Iran’s leaders dismissed the campaign as illegal “economic terrorism” and vowed retaliation, with President Pezeshkian telling Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir that U.S. “coercion and bullying” will only complicate talks. Pakistan-Iran talks: Munir’s Tehran visit—after a call with Trump—focused on preventing escalation and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Pakistan and Iran saying they made “significant progress” toward a negotiated settlement. Hormuz pressure: As the Strait remains heavily disrupted, Iran blacklisted 45 tankers and warned of fines, detention and cargo confiscation for violations, while U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said kinetic strikes are “by no means” ruled out. Targeting and threats: The U.S. Secret Service said it is aware of Iranian state media video threatening Barron Trump’s life, as Israel’s Netanyahu renewed claims that Iran tried to assassinate one of his sons. Energy backdrop: Oil prices slid and markets wobbled as sanctions fears grew, while Iran announced new gas reserves in Fars to bolster its energy outlook.

Sanctions Push: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil “economic D-Day,” warning countries and firms that keep doing business with Iran could be cut off from the dollar system, with secondary sanctions expected to widen across oil, money transfers, and trade networks. Currency & Daily Life: Iran’s rial slid past 2 million per dollar on the open market as the central bank chief called the weakness “temporary,” while fuel shortages are driving long lines and officials cite a large daily gasoline deficit. Gulf Pressure: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz authority warns “non-compliant” vessels face fines, detention, or confiscation, and Iran has blacklisted 45 tankers amid threats to choke Persian Gulf oil exports. Cyber & Security: Iran-linked hackers were blamed for shutting down a UK power plant for four days, and Tehran also warned it could target US military bases in Europe if they enable aggression. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to revive stalled US-Iran talks, while Iran insists the war won’t end on “aggressive” terms and signals retaliation if economic pressure escalates. Escalation Signals: Iran state media reportedly aired a segment threatening to kill Barron Trump and offered a $10 million bounty.

Strait of Hormuz Fees & Enforcement: Iran’s parliament advanced a draft to let Tehran charge “navigation and environmental” fees to vessels authorized to transit Hormuz, while the Ports and Maritime Organization warned non-compliant ships could face fines, detention, or confiscation. Economic D-Day Escalation: The U.S. Treasury says “economic D-Day” begins Monday, aiming to sever Iran’s financial and commercial lifelines and punish “enablers,” as oil prices slid on expectations of tougher sanctions. Iran Threatens Gulf Oil Halt: Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned that if the economic war continues, “not a single drop” will be exported from Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, calling support for the U.S. campaign an “act of war.” Diplomacy Under Strain: Iran’s president and civilian leaders urged an end to the conflict, backing a U.S.-Iran memorandum as the best path out, even as hardliners push for tougher retaliation. Regional Mediation: Pakistan’s Army chief Asim Munir is set to visit Tehran to discuss bilateral and regional issues amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks. Cyber & Security Spillover: Iran-linked hackers allegedly shut down a UK power generator for four days, adding to fears of wider infrastructure disruption. Domestic Pressure: Iran is preparing for another fuel-price hike as the rial weakens and economic strain deepens.

US-Iran Sanctions Clash: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi dismissed Washington’s “toughest sanctions” talk as a repeat of failed bullying, urging “justice and honor” instead of pressure. Economic Pressure Fallout: IRGC officials said the US shift to economic warfare signals military defeat, while President Masoud Pezeshkian warned Iran is in a “full-scale economic, military and security war” and admitted citizens face “many problems” as the rial slides toward record lows. Hormuz Leverage & Transit Fees: Iran warned neighbors against joining the US “economic war,” threatened seismic retaliation, and pushed a parliament-approved plan to charge Strait of Hormuz transit fees—raising uncertainty over any deal with Oman. Diplomacy via Pakistan: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir is set to visit Tehran Monday to revive stalled US-Iran talks after the June MoU. Energy Headlines: Iran announced a major gas discovery in Fars (7.5 Tcf) amid war disruptions, while cyberattacks kept Western energy security in focus. Regional Security Posture: Greece moved a Patriot battery to Crete as tensions with Iran, the US and Israel rise.

US-Iran Standoff: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran won’t make concessions and wants to move beyond the “no war, no peace” deadlock, warning uncertainty is hurting investment and insisting a June US memorandum contains no capitulation clause. Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei says the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the US fulfills commitments and “changes behaviour,” while also mocking Trump’s “US territory” claim. Economic War Threats: Rezaei warns any country joining Washington’s “economic war” will be treated as an enemy, promising retaliation “like an earthquake” and threatening to target oil routes if neighbours cooperate. Regional Messaging: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says Tehran has received messages from neighbours about new security and economic arrangements. Cyber & Infrastructure: Reports say Iran-linked hackers shut down a UK power plant for four days, prompting new cybersecurity guidance. Domestic Pressure: A renewed hijab enforcement push is spilling into businesses, with authorities reportedly closing cafes and shops for failing to police dress rules.

US-Iran War Casualties: The Pentagon’s tally cited by the Washington Post says 774 US personnel are killed or wounded in the war, with 18 dead and 756 injured, as the conflict enters its sixth month. Hormuz Pressure and Oil Transit: Iran and Iraq keep trading signals over the Strait of Hormuz: Iraq’s President Nizar Amidi says some Iraqi oil vessels are being facilitated through the strait, while Tehran’s officials insist the waterway is under Iranian control and warn of “crushing” retaliation if lifelines are threatened. Economic Sanctions Clash: Iran’s Foreign Ministry calls Trump’s new sanctions an “assertion of extraterritorial sovereignty” with no basis in international law, warning they could erode UN sovereignty; the US says it will pair a blockade with “the toughest sanctions in history.” Iran’s Deterrence Messaging: On Defense Industry Day, Iran’s acting defense leadership says production lines kept running during wartime and that new offensive and defensive systems were deployed, while the army chief warns any miscalculation will bring “revolutionary, crushing” response. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt’s FM spoke with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi about de-escalation and reviving the US-Iran memorandum track. Human Rights: Iran’s Supreme Court upheld the death sentence against Arghavan Fallahi, according to HRANA.